So I recently noticed that there are 41 bowl games this season, up from 37 or so last season - a couple new ones have been added in obscure cities, some of them being played at baseball parks. I actually went to one of those last year (BYU lost the inaugural Miami Beach Bowl which is played in Marlins Park).
On some level I don't mind "new" venues, b/c I am all about visiting stadiums, so any chance I get to visit a stadium I have never been to and watch a college football game I will take. But now I think they are overdoing it.
So there are 41 bowl games, which means 80 teams get to go (remember the new playoff means two teams get to double up). If you are paying attention to my other posts (as well you should be) you would know there are only 129 FBS. 129. So 80 bowl participants is 62% participation (and to think my grade-school music teacher said I would never be good at math - take that!).
And that doesn't even include the Tom Shady teams who aren't eligible b/c they cheated, or the ones who are in transition (like Charlotte) and therefore not yet eligible. So there are actually fewer than 129, which means the percentage is even a little 62%.
62%, maybe 63-64% even? That seems a little unrealistic - there have been times in the past when they were almost unable to fill all the bowls, and that was when there were only 35 or so. Can they really fill so many? And if going to a bowl is so easy does it lessen the accomplishment? Probably. But nobody really cares b/c it is all about the money, and fans love an excuse for another game. But just like no one will ever admit they want Temple in their conference to get the Philadelphia market, they won't ever admit it's all about the money.
So I looked at the numbers last night, if the season ended today there are only ~73 teams that are at or above .500, meaning they would get an invite. Surely others could become eligible, but some will lose more and fall out. So my forecast is that it will be dicey at best.