Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Breakdown (Go Ahead And Give It To Me)
The worry, from the stathead point of view, is twofold. One, last year Sabathia clearly wore down right around playoff time, and if the Brewers are planning on making an October push they'd probably prefer a healthy Sabathia to a gassed one. Two, all of this unnecessary workload is making it more likely that Sabathia's going to break down at some point.
To which, I suspect, the feeling from Milwaukee is "that's the Yankees' problem". Or the Dodgers, or whoever; next year is next year, and whatever shape Sabathia's shoulder and elbow are in after 2008 wraps up will be someone else's problem. The Brewers are under no formal obligation to protect Sabathia. Their mandate is to win this year, and to extract whatever it takes from their players in order to do so. If that takes a hypothetical year or five off the back end of Sabathia's career, well, flags fly forever.
Over at Baseball Prospectus they've been advocating this sort of treatment of pending free agents forever as the best way to maximize team resources. From a strict cost/benefit analysis, it makes a lot of sense. You have an asset now, you maximize that asset while you possess it, and what happens after it leaves your possession is Someone Else's Problem.
Except that in the closed system of professional baseball, it isn't entirely SEP. After all, the Brewers may face Sabathia next year, and beyond. The teams they battle for playoff spots will face him, too. What happens this year, the usage patterns and the consequences of those patterns, will resonate with the Brewers for years to come. It will be at a much lower level, of course, than if the big guy is still rocking Bernie Brewer's world, but it will be there.
So, if you're the particularly paranoid, or suspicious, or dastardly sort, you can start to wonder if there is in fact an ulterior motive to what the Brewers are doing with Sabathia. After all, if he breaks next year, he breaks on someone else's payroll, expensively - and he doesn't pitch against the Brewers.
This is not to say that Bob Melvin and Ned Yost are deliberately and maliciously sabotaging Sabathia's ulnar ligaments and career. In fact, I'd be shocked and horrified if they'd even considered it. Both seem like upright, straightforward gents who are baseball lifers, and baseball lifers just don't do that sort of thing. But if I've thought of it, then someone else has thought of it, and maybe, just maybe someone's agent has thought of it and is going to take steps to prevent his client from being ridden hard and put away wet. In its own weird way, the case of what Sabathia did in the Ninth may end up having a profound and lasting effect on how players and clubs interact over impending free agency.
Maddux Redux
When the Dodgers tried to get Maddux at the trade deadline, there was widespread rumbling that they insisted that the Padres pay all of his remaining salary in addition to taking what was in essence a pile of used sweat socks back. Wisely, the Padres said no to this, but with Brad Penny going down, one would hope that the Dodgers would be a little more flexible in what they're offering.
Mind you, this deal is weird on several levels already. Maddux essentially came out and said LA was the only team he'd accept a trade to, which not only tied San Diego's hands, but also stapled GM Kevin Towers' feet to the floor. But with that being said, the real question is what Towers will be able to extract from Ned "Snowmiser" Colletti and his fabled, Smaug-like hoard of prospects. The Andy LaRoche trade shows that Colletti's death grip on his farm system is loosening ever so slightly; either that, or farm director Logan White's lost a power struggle that we don't know about. But what is certain is that if the Dodgers give up a reasonable prospect for Maddux, and take less money as well, then Colletti's definitely desperate, definitely playing for this year, and probably playing for his job.
Monday, August 18, 2008
Swing and a Miss
Or, to put it another way, when you come in to San Diego to play a Padres team that is throwing guys like Cha Seung Bek out there and starting guys like Luke Carlin and Luis Rodriguez (to say nothing of the return of Brian Myrow), you need to do a hell of a lot better than 6 runs in 3 games. I'd buy that whole "Petco suppresses offense" thing more easily if San Diego hadn't erupted for 8 runs in the second game of the series, more than the Phils put up over the course of the entire series.
They're coming in off the road now, and with luck the cozy dimensions at First Citizens' will wake up the thunder a little bit. If they don't, then the Phils are going to be playing golf this October.
Saturday, August 16, 2008
An Important Thing To Remember About Steve Smith's Concussion...
Two men he's been teammates with, not quite capable of saying that.
Now, can you imagine what the media frenzy would have been like if Prince Fielder had tried to take Manny Parra's block off the way Smith went after a teammate? Not a pretty picture, is it?
Friday, August 15, 2008
All Hail the Wormkiller General!
The surprise continued when I bought our seats at the walkup window. We were most of the way up in the last section in left-center, which meant that there was indeed a full house. Clarity returned, however, when I saw the big banner draped across the top of the stairwell leading into the concourse: Best Buy $1 Concessions Night. One dollar hot dogs, one dollar fries, one dollar popcorn - a great deal. And if the cynic in me notes that they're only missing the soft pretzels to have the Four Horseman of the Saltpocalypse on the menu and they're not dropping drink prices, well, that didn't stop me from taking advantage of the deal.
The game itself was mostly a grace note affair in terms of interest. Norfolk threw a sidearmer out there, and while he kept the Bulls off balance for a while, mostly it was their own impatience that was getting them out after a while. The more patient hitters, like ancient backup catcher Mike DeFelice, waited the guy out and then feasted on meatballs when he was forced to throw strikes. Fernando Perez continued to put on a show in the field and on the basepaths, Johnny Gomes kept on trying (and failing) to hit his way back to the bigs with one swing, and Joel Guzman got picked off first base.
But the real story (apart from the giant motorized shopping car that Wool E. Bull and Story, the Hurricanes' mascot, roared around the warning track in to distribute t-shirts by airgun) was Mitch "Wormkiller General" Talbot. Seven shutout innings, lots of swings and misses with his curveball, and sneaking up as high as 93 on the stadium gun every so often. Admittedly, the lineup Norfolk threw out there wasn't exactly what you'd call challenging - for God's sake, one of their big guns offensively was Tike Redman - but even so, it was a masterful pitching performance, and the highlight of the night.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Steinbrenner Smarts
Well played, Hank'n'Stein. Well played.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
I suppose it was inevitable
The Dunn deal is both more interesting and sadder. It wasn't that long ago that the Reds were blessed with a surplus of extremely talented outfielders: Ken Griffey Junior, Wily Mo Pena, Adam Dunn, and Austin Kearns. It was conventional wisdom that how the Reds dealt with this surfeit of talent, and the return they got for carefully trading one away, would go a long way toward determining the future of the franchise.
Now, they're all gone, and for pennies (or less) on the dollar. We still don't know the shape of the Arizona trade, but even as a salary dump, it's pointless; the Reds are paying too much of Dunn's remaining deal to get any real relief. Plus, it's not like they had any outfield prospects coming up behind him whom they needed to make room for; the world has seen more than enough of the Hairston & Patterson show already. The haul for all four outfielders? Not even a handful of magic beans.
- Coming into this season, the big question on Rays catching prospect John Jaso was his defense. If last night was any indication, he's picked it up quite a bit. He blocked several balls in the dirt (actually, the way the Bulls' starter was throwing, it's a surprise some of those balls made it to the plate) and fired off a throw to second from his knees that was dead on target. The Rays may have an interesting dilemma behind the plate next year.
- The prize of the Adam LaRoche deal with Pittsburgh, infielder Brent Lillibridge, looks completely lost at the plate. You know that bit in 20000 Leagues Under the Sea where the giant squid grabs the submarine and the various crewmen are whacking at it with whatever's handy? He kind of looks like that. After his second at-bat, he was visibly frustrated and angry, which probably didn't help matters.
- Chris Chambliss still looks like he could kick your ass.
- Rays CF prospect Fernando Perez can flat-out fly. I mean, I knew he was fast, but...wow. Plus, he's Ivy League. The proud heritage of Columbia baseball, from Lou Gehrig to Gene Larkin, may just get extended.
- Elliot Johnson has added what can only be described as a "hop" to his swing. It's like he does a half leg kick when he starts the bat moving, and forgets to put his foot down until the last minute. It's weird and vaguely uncomfortable to watch.
- Scanning the Richmond dugout, I got a definite sense of "Who are these guys?" Apart from Lillibridge and Brandon Jones on the offensive side of the ball, the most recognizable name I saw was Corky Miller - and he was playing first base. Not catcher. Not "defensive replacement for the catcher". First base, the most important offensive position on the diamond*. I'm starting to get the feeling that there are some dark days ahead for Braves fans.
*I know he's filling in for Scott Thormann, who's with the Olympic team, but that still begs two questions. One, if you're missing Scott Thormann, what does that say about the rest of your offense, and two, if the best you can do to replace him is Corky Miller, what does that say about the rest of your player development?
Sunday, August 10, 2008
The Secret Brett Favre Diaries, Part IV
August 2nd, 2008
Dear Diary, I am so not answering the phone today.
But you know what? Roger texted me! Guess who’s getting re-instated? And when I am, I’m going to where my old jersey with the grass stains and the mud and the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, just to show Green Bay what they would have been missing!
August 3rd, 2008
God, so many text messages from
August 4th
Aaron Rodgers is SUCH a BITCH! Oh, sure, he was saying all the right things like how he was looking forward to having me back and how much he respects me, but it was ALL a LIE! He wants my team, that two-timing system quarterback WHORE!
And Mike McCarthy says that I’m overreacting, and that there’s nothing there, and, and, and…I HATE THEM SO MUCH!
August 5th, 2008
Dear Diary, there are times when you just have to realize that it’s not going to work.
I got a fortune cookie once that said “Today is the first day of the rest of your life. I wish I’d gotten that cookie today, cause it is, like, so true right now.
Huh. Another text message from the Jets. You know, they’ve actually kinda got a nice smile.
August 6th, 2008
Ooh! I am SO MAD! That’s so like the Packers, having a conversation with you one minute and then giving a press conference and telling the whole world about it the next. I thought it was just between us that I wasn’t sure I wanted to be their quarterback, but here’s Mikey McBlabbermouth telling EVERYONE just how I felt.
I mean, how can you trust an organization that’s going to do that to you? You share your deepest feelings, and your fears, and your hopes and your dreams, and they call a press conference. I could just die.
That does it. I am not going to practice for them, no sir. I’m flying home right now, and there’s nothing they can do to stop me. And when I get home, I’m going in my room and I’m putting on my music REALLY REALLY LOUD, and I’m not coming out even if they beg me. Which they will, because they’re, like,
So there.
August 7th, 2008
Dear Diary,
I think the Jets and I are going to be very happy together. It’s so nice to be with someone who really loves me and wants me and appreciates how special I am. And the best part is, I won’t have to throw out any of my green clothes.
Who’s the luckiest quarterback in the world? Me, diary. Me.
Saturday, August 09, 2008
The Secret Brett Favre Diaries, Part III
July 27th, 2008
I am so bummed.
July 28th, 2008
I cannot believe the nerve!
Do I look like that kind of quarterback to you? Do I, diary? I don’t think so.
I am so applying for reinstatement.
July 29th, 2008
Guess who’s re-in-sta-ted? Guess who’s re-instaaaaa-ted?
July 30th, 2008
So, ummm, I’m not, like reinstated? At least, not yet. ‘Cause Minnesota's Uncle Roger hasn’t read the letter or something, which makes me mad, because I used my best stationery and everything. You know, the one with picture of the pony on the envelope that smells like strawberries? I love strawberries. I wonder if they’ll have them at training camp.
August 1st, 2008
I woke up this morning and there was this weird noise outside. So I looked out my window, and there was
Then the police came and chased
Thursday, August 07, 2008
The Secret Brett Favre Diaries, Part II
July 2, 2008
Like, omigod, I hope this works. I gave Bus a note to give James Campen to give to Mike McCarthy to give to Ted Thompson to tell him I still totally think
July 3, 2008
July 4, 2008
They said that
Whatever. Like they should ever have reason to doubt me. When I say I'm going to do something, I like totally do it.
July 5, 2008
Wow,
July 8th, 2008
So
And you know what I said, diary? You know what I told them?
I finally said “Yes!”
July 9, 2008
OMG, I am SO ANGRY!
July 11, 2008
Fine. If they don’t want me, I don’t want them. You know who’s cute?
July 12, 2008
Wow.
July 13, 2008
Dear Diary,
I look good in purple, don’t you think? It doesn’t make my butt look big or anything.
July 14, 2008
And there I was at home totally thinking how hunky
Greta’s my bestest friend ever.
July 16, 2008
Bus is so cool. He told everyone that
July 17, 2008
OMG THEY’RE JEALOUS!
They still care!
I should call them. But I can’t.
July 25th, 2008
Dear Diary,
I know Bus said not to call the Packers, but I couldn’t wait any longer. I totally had to tell them that I missed them and that I was coming to camp! And Ted was just so cold! He told me that I couldn’t come to camp, and that he didn’t want me at camp, and that I wasn’t even reinstated!
I told him I could be reinstated if he wanted me to be. For
July 26th, 2008
I heard from ESPN who heard from SI who heard from The Sporting News that
Totally ewww. I mean, they’re not even really
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
The Secret Brett Favre Diaries, Part I
March 3, 2008
Dear Diary,
I know that
That’s it. I told
March 12, 2008
I KNEW IT!
March 17, 2008
Wow.
So, I, like, called, Green Bay, and told them I missed them.
March 28th, 2008
March 29th, 2008
OMG. So, like,
April 14, 2008
Trying to learn cross-stitch. ZOMG, this is really hard!
May 7, 2008
Bored now. Bored, bored bored.
May 18th, 2008
June 7th, 2008
They haven’t called. Why haven’t they called?
June 16, 2008
They called!!!! I came home from pottery class, and there was a message on my machine, and OMG it was
I am so, like, totally not calling them back right now, though. I can’t seem like I missed them too much.
Squee!
June 18, 2008
Talked to
June 20, 2008
I think.
Snapshots from Saturday Night - Team USA versus Team Canada
Apologies for the quality of the camerawork; I'm not very good at this sort of thing.
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Not That I Have a Dog In This Fight...
Well, we've already empirically proven that one false. 'cause, like, '85 signaled the end of interest in baseball as we know it. But we know that it would never happen in football, right? Right?

OK, so let's not ask the Seahawks about that one. After all, it was just the Super Bowl, after all, and everyone knows nobody's cared about football since then. Still, it's got to be exclusively an American phenomenon, right?
Manny Being...Something
Recently, Manny Ramirez switched agents to Scott Boras. The math was simple - if the Red Sox (or any team) picked up Manny's option at $20M for next year, Boras got nada. If Manny got a new deal, Boras would get his percentage.
Do the math.
And then read Peter Gammons' pieces over at ESPN discussing how Manny would only accept a trade to a team that wouldn't pick up his options, or how Boras told Theo Epstein that if the Red Sox agreed not to pick up the option Manny would behave for the rest of the year, or how Manny sat out games with a knee that apparently hurt so badly that he couldn't remember which knee it was when the Sox told him to take an MRI.
Do the math.
Gammons claims Manny was talking openly about his upcoming 4 year, $100M payday. While the possibility remains that Boras contacted a team and worked out an under-the-table deal (see: Drew, J.D.), it's more likely that Manny was dreaming, as I can't see any team shelling out $25M/year for a declining bat with no glove, no wheels, and no inclination to show up. Even the Los Angeles fan base will figure out that Manny being Manny isn't the same as Manny being a Dodger soon enough.
As fans, we often ask too much from our athletes when they are on the field; we also simultaneously ask too little of them as human beings. But the one thing that we are justified in asking for is effort. Take the money, play the game, and we'll gladly pay your salaries.
Manny Ramirez broke that compact, and Manny almost certainly doesn't care. But for whatever infinitesmal bit it's worth, I care. So the hell with you, Manny Ramirez. Enjoy Los Angeles. Thanks for 2004. But I won't be shelling out to see you play, the only small power of protest left to me.
But what the hell, I'll try it anyway. After all, it seemed to work for you.
Sunday, August 03, 2008
U! S! A!
Team USA won handily, with Trevor Cahill handling the Canadians early on and Nate Schierholz and Matt LaPorta, among others, supplying the thunder. The atmosphere was both enjoyable and collegial. Both teams got cheered, the U! S! A! chants were good-humored, and there was applause for good plays and good hitting on both sides.
Other random notes:
- Cahill was mostly sitting at 90-91, and occasionally had trouble with his control low. Beyond that, however, he just manhandled the Canadian lineup. They barely even made good contact off of him.
- Rockies prospect Casey Weathers handled the ninth, and he was absolutely dealing. 96 on the gun, and that loud "smack" in the mitt that echoes off the center-field fence. Warming up, he threw the ball past his bullpen catcher a few times, but once he was in the game, control was not a problem.
- Mike Koplove, sidearming reliever, is a relatively small guy. Blaine Neal, fastballing reliever, is a very large guy. Watching the two of them head off to serve as "lookout" guys for Weathers and his catcher while the guy was warming up was very "Stan and Ollie".
- Louis Marson, catching prospect for the Phillies, is a new Official Hero of Sportsthodoxy. Sitting in the bullpen, he ignored a few fans from Philly who were trying to get his attention until one of them shouted "You suck!". (Hey, they ARE from Philly.) He turned to look at them, at which point the guy said, "Sure, now you turn around," and there was some good-natured banter. I yelled back and forth with Marson a little bit, and he was gracious to both fans and his organization-mates, especially Carlos Ruiz. (Lou, if you're reading this, I was the loud guy in the Styx shirt. Then again, those two things do seem to go together.)
- There was a row of scouts sitting, silently, behind home plate. A few had radar guns, or video cameras. Most spent the game scratching in notebooks and not noticing, say, interested fans peeking over their shoulders.
- Lots of kids at the game. Lots of kids.
- The game wrapped up in roughly 2.5 hours, impressive for the amount of scoring that was done. There wasn't a lot of showing off in the batters' box or repetitive throws to first, just fast, clean baseball.
- LaPorta looked like he was trying to hit six-run homers on every at-bat. When he finally did connect, he bounced a shot off the top of the wall in left-center.
- Some odd lineup choices for USA manager Davey Johnson. The heart of his order was retreads - guys like Mike Hessman and Terry Tiffee - while big bats like LaPorta batted further down.
- Interesting to see which teams were on-board with the Olympics and which weren't. Cleveland? Check. The Phillies? Check. Minnesota and the Angels and Colorado, which sent both Weathers and Dexter Fowler? Check. Yankees and Red Sox? Not so much. Which, when you think about it, is sad. They're the Yankees, after all.
Saturday, August 02, 2008
A Memo to Tim Kurkjian and Steve Philips
Meanwhile, in Jason Bay, the Red Sox get a guy who is younger, cheaper, under their control for another year, and in the same neighborhood as Manny's level of production. Oh, and he knows what that big leather thing on his hand is for when he stands out in the outfield. Is he, at his best, the player Manny was when he was at his best? No, but Manny's never going to be that guy again, not unless it turns out he's from Gallifrey.
So, really, any analysis of this trade that overlooks the fact that Manny is now 36 and injury-prone is kind of missing the point, and ultimately irrelevant. The Red Sox gave up a couple of semi-prospects they were never going to use and some cash, which they've got plenty of, for a better outfield solution that gives the good production at the plate, another year of certainty as to his status, fewer Scott Boras shenanigns, and most likely lower psychiatric bills for the aging travel secretary Manny shoved a few months back.
In other words, it would have been find to rend your garments over the deal if this had been made in, say, 2003. But it wasn't. It was made in 2008, and Manny is a fading, injury prone lump and a distraction, and getting a guy as good as Jason Bay for him says this trade was a winner.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
You Damn Kids Get Offa Coach Fox's Lawn
"The one thing I don't get is that some of the young kids want to play video games at night. I mean late...The worst part is they're making noise above us and we're trying to get some sleep."Also, they play that hippity-hop music, and grow their hair long, like goddamn hippies.
Not to go all FJM on you or anything...
Brilliant.
I'll bet they never thought of that.
Throw in Doug Gottlieb digging up the old "A-Rod never hits in the post-season" road chestnut to explain why he doesn't like the Mark Teixeira deal, and it was an absolutely stellar day for ESPN non-baseball wonks trying to talk about that weird game with the funny white ball.
*For the record, Gottlieb said that since A-Rod became a Yankee, he put too much pressure on himself in the postseason, and thus performed poorly. Here's Rodriguez's post-season line in New York:
2004 - .320 BA/.414 OBP/.600 SLG/1.014 OPS
2005 - .133 BA/.435 OBP/.200 SLG/ .635 OPS
2006 - .071 BA/ .133 OBP/ .071 SLG/ .204 OPS
2007 - .267 BA/ .353 OPB/ .467 SLG/ .820 OPS
Just eyeballing it, that looks like one great year, two bad ones, and one good one. In other words, statistical noise.
Just for fun, here's Derek Jeter's track record over the same time
2004 - .245 BA/ .339 OBP/ .347 SLG/ .686 OPS
2005 - .333 BA/ .348 OBP/ .619 SLG/.967 OPS
2006 - .500 BA/ .529 OBP/ .938 SLG/ 1.467 OPS
2007 - .176 BA/ .176 OBP/ .176 SLG/ .352 OPS
Hmm. Looks like one great year, one really good one, and two bad ones. In other words...statisical noise that looks pretty similar to what A-Rod put up.
And in 2004 - the year both A-Rod and Cap'n Jetes put up the most post-season ABs, Rodriguez kicked Jeter's butt.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Yankee Hoodoo
It's magic, I tell you. Darkest magic.
