Tuesday, January 06, 2009

Do the Math

The important numbers are 32, 37, 2, 3, 8000000, and 10000000. Pat Burrell is 32, and signed a deal for 2 years at $8M. Raul Ibanez, the guy replacing Burrell because he was too expensive and wanted too long a deal, is 37 and signed for 3 years at $10M per annum. Yes, their stats are roughly equivalent, but any way you slice the numbers, Burrell is the better bet going forward, and Ibanez has a much, much greater chance of turning into an immobile, Vaughn-like (Greg, Mo, or the late Arky - take your pick) monolith well before the contract is up.

The Phillies should be fine for 2009. However, it's in 2010 and 2011 - right around the time their core will start declining - that they'll really be feeling the bad effects of this deal. And as a fan, it's a hard thing to watch in what should be an offseason of celebration and hope.

2 comments:

Jason Langlois said...

"much greater chance of turning into an immobile, Vaughn-like (Greg, Mo, or the late Arky - take your pick) monolith well before the contract is up."

One might reasonably argue that he's done this before the contract has even started...

Unknown said...

Good point.

Henceforth, he shall be referred to as "Ol' Waffle-Mitts".