I don't care what happens tonight. The Warriors are going to win the NBA Finals.
Yes, LeBron is the best player in the league. Possibly the best player ever. (I find all the talk show yobbos who insist King James couldn't hold Jordan's jock to be amusing; a game where LeBron was constantly dropping his shoulder and steamrolling Jordan on his way to the hoop for four quarters would likely have not ended terribly well for MJ). David Blatt or Tyronn Lue or the space aliens from the planet Lanulos or whoever is coaching the Cavs have done an utterly masterful job of scraping together whatever spare parts they have left and cooking up a defense that takes the air out of the the ball and the Warriors pace of play. Dirty Dellavedova - who, despite the inevitable "scrappy" narrative is one hell of an athlete, even if he's got worse shooting mechanics than a blunderbuss filled with rusty nails - has risen to the occasion and pestered Steph Curry into a series of subpar shooting performances. And in Soviet Russia, Timofey Mozgov scores on you.
Right now the Cavs have maybe 7 NBA-level bodies on their roster.On the bench? Mike Miller. Shawn Marion. Kendrick Perkins. Brendan Haywood. Bodies you put on the floor if you're trying to win the ACC Tournament or the 2009 NBA Dunk Contest. Not bodies you put on the floor during the finals. There is no sane universe where Mike Miller even sniffs the floor in a Finals game closer than 20 points.
And those seven bodies won't last. Not at the pace the Warriors want to play at, and not with the max-effort defensive effort keeping them from running demands. Iman Shumpert's got a bum shoulder. Dellavedova went to the hospital for exhaustion. LeBron was cramping up during Game 3. If even one of them goes down, who do you plug the hole with? If one of them slows up, who do you plug in to get them some rest? Sooner or later, the flesh gives up.
Nothing against the Cavs or LeBron. What he has done dragging the shipwreck of this roster to the Finals has been astonishing. But sooner or later, you just run out of gas.
Warriors in 7.